Panel: DHS models for assessing terrorist threats poor

Standard risk models, such as those the DHS uses, assume that threat, vulnerability, and the consequences of risks are constants; an expert panel notes, though, that humans, unlike natural disasters, change their targets and tactics in response to protective measures that the authorities take against them, so the risk factors are no longer constant; the panel urges DHS to develop risk models that react dynamically to changing terrorist tactics; the report also says it may not be possible to quantify all risks: the risks posed by the fear and social disruption caused by terrorists are much harder to quantify than the risk of a bridge being blown up, for example

Only “low confidence” should be placed in most of the risk analyses of terrorist threats conducted by DHS, concludes a review by a National Research Council panel.

http://homelandsecuritynewswire.com/panel-dhs-models-assessing-terrorist-threats-poor